I would love to say that I stumbled upon a great insight here but the fact is I simply watched an episode of “Hardball” on MSNBC and heard what I felt was a compelling argument for why we will see Sarah Palin in the Republican Presidential primary race in 2012. What follows are Chris Matthews’ views with some elaboration on my part:
After losing a presidential bid in 1960 and a subsequent California gubernatorial bid, Richard Nixon told the press they wouldn’t have “Nixon to kick around anymore”. But he really didn’t just pick up his toys and go home. Instead he spent 1966 on the stump for mid-term Republican candidates. It got his name in the news and it made him relevant again. It was the perfect set up for a 1968 run for the Presidency.
Sarah Palin’s track record for involvement in mid-term races is perhaps slightly higher than 50% wins but win or lose, it keeps her name in the headlines. As her track record for supporting winners improves, it enhances her perceived credibility. She can still talk like the mindless twit she is but imply great political chops by backing winners. The other effect that backing winners has for Palin is the old quid pro quo. Even if Sarah has absolutely no real influence, she can always call in implied IOU’s from the various winners that she backs. So when 2012 rolls around she’s got a bunch of politicians in her “debt” who must now stump for her.
Sarah can very well win Iowa appealing to the down-home religious crowd. She can possibly win New Hampshire, repeating Hillary Clinton’s feminist surge forward. Lots of folks in the South will probably love her, so South Carolina, an important primary state, may be hers as well. In primary debates, her male opponents will hesitate to eviscerate her. Unlike Hillary, she does not inspire a lot of animosity from within her own party. If her male opponents pile on, it will only make her look stronger.
Many say Sarah will not want the pay cut that winning the Presidency would entail. I say baloney. Sarah Palin is above all else an egomaniac. She is a first class attention whore. The idea of being the first female candidate for President from a major political party is something she just could not resist. On top of that, she plays by an entirely different set of rules, so if the Presidency doesn’t suit her, she’ll just up and quit. She is just that bat-dung crazy.
She says she will take her cue from God. Can you really imagine Sarah’s God telling her no?